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With a 10% pullback already in place and global inventories being depleted, can rubber spark a broader rally?

With a 10% pullback already in place and global inventories being depleted, can rubber spark a broader rally?

The catalyst for this round of adjustments stems, on the supply side, from two expectations: a decline in raw-material prices and an anticipated build-up of domestic inventories as shipments concentrate at ports in December. On the demand side, the onset of the off-season has exerted downward pressure on bullish sentiment.

05

2023

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12

Rubber: Drawing Lessons from History—An Initial Exploration of the Relationship Between Domestic Stockpiling and Destocking and the Supply-Demand Structure

Rubber: Drawing Lessons from History—An Initial Exploration of the Relationship Between Domestic Stockpiling and Destocking and the Supply-Demand Structure

Thailand: Whenever news of a government stock‑piling proposal is released, it typically pushes spot prices higher for the week; however, as the government’s credibility has eroded, the impact of such announcements on market prices has grown increasingly muted in recent instances. With the exception of 2017, when flooding in major producing regions drove prices up, government sales have generally exerted downward pressure on weekly spot prices.

01

2023

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12

Can the rubber sector’s upward momentum persist?

Can the rubber sector’s upward momentum persist?

Benefiting from the peak of global liquidity tightening now receding and a resurgence of macro‑level optimism, coupled with a sharp rally in crude oil futures that has cascaded downstream to butadiene rubber, both Shanghai rubber and standard rubber futures have strengthened in tandem. With downstream demand entering its peak season and port inventories continuing to decline, the SHFE rubber 2401 contract surged to its daily limit in early September and has since maintained a volatile yet upward‑trending trajectory, with the contract’s price center steadily shifting higher. Supported by a confluence of positive factors, Shanghai rubber futures are likely to remain on a relatively firm footing going forward.

20

2023

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09

Cost Analysis: The Rubber Bull Market Has a Long and Distant Road Ahead

Cost Analysis: The Rubber Bull Market Has a Long and Distant Road Ahead

I’ve been closely watching the rubber market, as its supply is highly inelastic; when a major rally does materialize, it tends to be exceptionally strong. Moreover, that significant upturn may not be far off—after all, the previous cycle lasted 10 to 20 years.

13

2023

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09

A long-awaited daily limit-up—has spring arrived for the rubber sector?

A long-awaited daily limit-up—has spring arrived for the rubber sector?

Recently, rubber-related contracts have posted strong gains: Shanghai rubber has been on a steady upward trajectory since mid-August, and on the first day of September it even recorded a long-awaited daily limit-up. That same day, newly listed synthetic rubber led the charge with an immediate limit-up, which in turn spurred both Shanghai rubber and RSS 3 to follow suit. This rare limit-up has sparked widespread speculation—could spring be returning for the rubber market?

15

2023

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08

Natural Rubber: Focus on Long‑Position Opportunities Amid Supply Dynamics and Macro‑Level Synergies

Natural Rubber: Focus on Long‑Position Opportunities Amid Supply Dynamics and Macro‑Level Synergies

Next year, natural rubber supply is expected to remain at low growth. Since 2013, newly planted acreage has declined annually, and southern Thailand has entered a sustained phase of production cuts. Meanwhile, Indonesia is also grappling with the aging of its rubber tree population, reinforcing a clear downward trend in output. In terms of tapping area share, in 2022 Thailand and Indonesia—the two major producers in Southeast Asia—accounted for 90.78% and 80.07%, respectively, indicating that their production capacity has essentially reached a ceiling. Import‑related pressures have eased somewhat, though weather uncertainties persist, with the El Niño effect still lingering. On the demand side, domestic passenger‑car sales are projected to maintain steady growth, while exports are expected to remain resilient; however, the weakening of heavy‑truck markets could dampen tire demand. Overall, demand is likely to remain broadly stable.

20

2023

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07

Rubber: Respect the Seasons, Prioritize Structure

Rubber: Respect the Seasons, Prioritize Structure

Our outlook for the 2024 rubber market is to respect the rhythms of nature while placing a strong emphasis on structural factors.

15

2023

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05

The production process of standard rubber, from tapping to finished product, and knowledge about natural rubber imports.

The production process of standard rubber, from tapping to finished product, and knowledge about natural rubber imports.

Natural rubber possesses excellent physicochemical properties and, after appropriate treatment, exhibits resistance to oil, acids, alkalis, heat, cold, and abrasion, making it widely applicable. Since the establishment of China’s first rubber factory in 1915, the Chinese rubber industry has a history spanning more than a century. As domestic demand for natural rubber continues to grow, it has been designated as an “important strategic material and industrial raw material.”

28

2022

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07

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