Donghai Rubber Donghai Rubber

Rubber: Taking history as a mirror, a preliminary exploration of the relationship between domestic collection and storage and supply and demand structure.

2023-12-01

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Thailand: when the news of the collection and storage proposal is released, it will basically drive up the price of the disk during the week, but with the government's credibility reduced, the impact of the collection and storage news on the disk price in recent times is getting weaker and weaker.

China: Excluding the changes in disk prices caused by the imbalance between supply and demand in 2007 and 2013, the news of the collection and storage proposal may drive up disk prices during the month when it is released, or it may have little impact on disk prices. The dumping of reserves will basically drive down disk prices during the month.

Overall, the country is still in a state of oversupply, and the gap between supply and demand in 2023 is expected to be the most consistent with 2012. Therefore, it is estimated that the reserve is about 100000 tons, and it is a new full latex. Considering that 2003-2012 is the stage of rapid increase in domestic planting area, the turning point of domestic supply may be 2028.

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