Can the upward momentum of the rubber plate continue?
Benefiting from the global liquidity tightening extreme value has been obvious, macro optimism rebounded, while crude oil futures prices rose sharply, to the downstream butadiene rubber conduction, driving the Shanghai rubber and standard rubber futures to strengthen simultaneously. In the downstream demand to the peak season, port inventory continued to de-de-de-de-the background, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2401 contract in early September strong stop, after the continuation of the oscillation upward posture, the center of gravity of the price steadily raised. Based on the resonance support of positive factors, the post-market Shanghai rubber price is expected to maintain a strong attitude.
After more than a year of continuous unconventional interest rate hikes, European and American countries are in a high interest rate environment. Risk events have occurred in the European and American banking industries, and the pressure of economic recession has increased. Data show that in August 2023, the United States and the euro zone manufacturing PMI initial value of 47.0 and 43.7, respectively, continue to be located below the critical point, Europe and the United States and other major economies manufacturing continued to contract. At the same time, the inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve is often seen as a sign of its recession, and since July 2022, U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields have been inverted for more than a year, during which the maximum inversion reached 100 basis points. At the same time, the United States recently disclosed August non-agricultural employment data, the unemployment rate rose sharply to 3.8, reaching a high in February 2022. The labor force participation rate was 62.8 per cent, the highest level since the outbreak. After the data was released, the market expected the probability of the Fed not raising interest rates in September rose to 93%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in November fell to 31%; the first rate cut was advanced from July 2024 to June 2024.
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