Natural rubber: focus on supply and macro resonance to do more opportunities.

2023-07-20

word size

The supply of natural rubber will maintain a low growth next year. Since 2013, the newly added planting area has declined year by year. Southern Thailand has entered a stage of continuous production reduction. At the same time, Indonesia is also affected by the aging of rubber trees. The production reduction trend is clear. At the same time, judging from the proportion of rubber tapping area, Thailand and Indonesia, the major producers in Southeast Asia, will account for 90.78 and 80.07 respectively in 2022, and the production release will basically reach the ceiling level, pressure on imports has also eased, while weather disturbances remain and the impact of El Niño remains unabated. On the demand side, passenger car domestic sales are expected to maintain stable growth, exports are also resilient, but also need to consider the weakening of tire demand brought about by the weakening of heavy trucks, the demand side is expected to remain stable overall.

Looking forward to 2024, it is expected that the price of natural rubber will be mainly driven by the influence of the supply side. At the same time, attention should be paid to macro changes, the introduction of various domestic stimulus policies, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the easing of Sino-US relations. Macro recovery will also have a good boost to prices. The probability of further upward movement of the price center next year is relatively high. It is expected that the futures price fluctuation range [13500-16000] next year], you can grasp the dominant logic under different points and time nodes, such as the overall bulk trading macro-recovery logic stage of low and multi-match.