Rubber: ZunTianTianHeavy Structure
◆ Our characterization of the rubber market in 2024 is that it is time-honored and heavy structure.
◆ We expect 2024 rubber market structural market mainly, seasonal law is the basic melody. accompanied by event-driven.
Rubber is an agricultural product, and its supply is greatly affected by the weather. The seasonal characteristics of rubber demand are also strong. So try to respect the time.
Demand, because the demand for rubber and economic growth prospects are closely related.
The global total demand for rubber is expected to be neutral or decline.
China's rubber demand is neutral or declining (due to the expected decline in post-property cycle demand).
Overseas rubber demand is expected to be weak in the first half of the year, or the second half of the year due to the Fed's ECB monetary policy loosening and warming.
On the supply side, we believe that the supply is expected to be 0-2% due to the low potential for rubber production in Vietnam and Côte d'Ivoire and the low cost of tapping. The production potential is not low. Supply neutral or slightly empty.
Rubber: The first half of the year for the tire plant pressure up water to reduce costs. The second half of the year for the rubber farmers to seek harvest.
The main theme is financial services to the real economy.
◆ In the first, second and third quarters, the general premium is high. We should cherish it, sell more premium and preserve more value. Take a cautious view of the market.
By the fourth quarter, generally low water, for the rubber farmers to harvest. Stock up more to help the physical industry build inventory.
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