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Technology R & DThe total area of the test center is 3000M2, with more than 50 engineering and technical personnel, more than 60 sets of various experimental and testing instruments and equipment, physical and chemical rooms and physical properties rooms. The full set of performance of various rubber materials, various rubber materials and various products can be basically completed in this test center, which provides accurate data for the control of material quality and the testing of various product characteristics of our company, for our material selection, formula development, product performance improvement has played a major role.
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It has been pulled back by 10%. Can rubber ignite a spark in the global warehouse?
Reasons for recent adjustments:
The cause of this wave of adjustment is two expectations from the supply side: the expectation of falling raw material prices; The expectation of concentrated domestic storage in Hong Kong in December. On the demand side, it's because the downstream off-season is coming, and there's a certain amount of suppression of bullish confidence.
At present, the situation of export and output is not bad. A little sign of weakening mainly comes from the slight decline in the operating rate of all-steel tire factories and the accumulation of finished product warehouses. At present, the off-season of tire demand is entering, including the market expectation that the tires in the later period may be lower.
This year's volatility of natural rubber is low, the small increase in volatility at the end of August because of synthetic rubber, natural rubber appeared a rise and fall, driving the improvement of market sentiment. For the full year, the low volatility is similar to 2022. The lack of confidence in the bulls, coupled with the contango structure, is a natural fit for shorting.
Production and inventory of rubber:
This year's El Nino weather has been formed, which has delayed the growth of natural rubber trees during the cutting period, affected the quantity and quality of new leaf sprout, and delayed the cutting, which has been realized in reality.
When I went to Yunnan for research in March, I found that many processing plants had no glue and could not process it. It is also known that there are some droughts in Vietnam, which have led to the postponement of the cutting. After cutting, El Niño will lead to a decrease in chlorophyll synthesis, inhibit photosynthesis, and ultimately lead to a decrease in rubber tree yield. So this year, many of the main producing areas of natural rubber are affected by weather factors.
Thailand is a marginal variable this year, because there was more rain in Thailand this year. At the end of April, Thailand had extreme high temperature weather, which caused drought and delayed rubber tapping.
A certain depreciation of the Thai baht and a sharp adjustment in the minimum wage for Thai workers have led to a continuous upward movement in labor costs. The rubber tapping work is gradually abandoned by the younger generation, and the mature rubber workers are slowly losing. Against this backdrop, raw material prices in Thailand have remained high this year.
The leading indicator for judging whether Thailand has reduced production is raw materials. If the price of raw materials falls, the supply of raw materials for glue is relatively sufficient. If the price of raw materials is firm, it means that there is a shortage of raw materials, and the high price of raw materials will also lead to a serious compression of the profits of the processing plant, and the output of finished glue will be reduced accordingly.
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